India's April trade deficit probably narrowed

India will release April trade data during the week of 11 May. The trade deficit to have narrowed to USD 9.5bn from USD 11.8bn in March, accroding to Standard Chartered. Exports likely contracted again (declining 20% y/y, versus 21% in March) on weaker activity in trading-partner nations, while slower imports likely helped to narrow the trade deficit.

Gold imports probably eased as pent-up and festival-related demand slowed. The spike in oil imports in March likely eased in April. Analysts expect market concern about the external sector following yet another double-digit trade deficit. 

Nevertheless, the current account deficit is expected to remain contained in FY16 (ends March 2016) as commodity prices remain benign and domestic investment takes time to pick up.