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Increased consumer spending in US and China major keys to boost global growth

The global economy is still trying to create stronger growth. Aggregate demand still has to rebound in spite of very supportive monetary conditions globally. At the end of 2015, world trade volumes lost significant pace, with sub-par readings on manufacturing activity and bulk shipping continuing in the early months of 2016.

The persistent underperformance of the global economy can very much be attributed to China's strategy to remove overcapacity in most of its traditional manufacturing and industrial sectors as it shifts to higher-valued service-related and production output, spilling effects on suppliers across Latin America and Asia-Pacific.

Moreover, several commodity-dependent economies and regions are still reacting to the collapse in prices, mainly for metals and energy, through huge cuts in hiring and investment. Structural adjustments are weakening activity worldwide, particularly in the emerging market economies. Meanwhile, the renewed volatility in financial markets risks aggravating the level of economic uncertainty.

The global economic outlook remains weak due to the absence of more synchronized global economic activity, and the consequent divergence in policy. There is renewed rise in deflationary risks in the euro area against the backdrop of the expected moderate growth, which is compelling policymakers to favor deeper negative rates and expanded asset purchase program.

Japan has also introduced negative rates with the economy recording slight growth. Meanwhile, the US Fed has started to slowly normalize the rates in view of the very low jobless rate in the country and signs of rising price pressures. This has assisted in keeping the US dollar quite strong and has compelled nations like Mexico to raise interest rates in order to control capital outflows and steady their currencies. Several nations, such as Canada, are keeping policy on hold in the present scenario if low inflation and weak growth.

One of the major factors to help boost global growth is that consumers of the US should continue to increase spending, hence widening the US growth and buoying imports from around the world. With strong job growth, rising home valuations, lower gasoline prices and reduced debt burden, US households' purchasing power is being strengthened.

Another key to boost global growth is increasing consumer spending and service-related activity in China, hence easing the downside risks to growth associated with its multi-year structural adjustments impacting state-owned enterprises and private sector. Improving prospects globally will help in stabilizing commodity prices and ease the considerable cutback in progress amongst producers.

Meanwhile, Canada's relatively moderate growth shows a highly imbalanced regional performance, underlined by considerable cutbacks in investment and hiring that are underway in energy-dominated producing provinces.

"Our Canadian forecast incorporates our recommendation for federal fiscal stimulus of $20 billion, equivalent to 1% of GDP, implemented during the second half of 2016 and the first half of 2017. This stimulus would be over and above the deficit resulting from weaker economic conditions, estimated for fiscal 2016-17 at $18 billion by the federal government", says Scotiabank.

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