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Impacts of CNY devaluation on Emerging Markets

The CNY fixing is supposed to serve as a benchmark for the market spot. However, before the change, fixing and spot largely deviated from each other, which is neither an indication of fixing being an appropriate benchmark nor good for the CNY joining the SDR basket. 

Furthermore, poor July economic data exacerbated expectations of more weakening as it highlighted the need for policy support for exports and output. 

Credit Agricole forecasts the following impacts on EM currencies, 

  • The SGD is expected to depreciate in line with the CNY and MYR, which have the highest weights in our SGD NEER basket. USD/SGD is expected to reach 1.44 by year-end, but if NODX continues to disappoint, weighing on manufacturing sector growth, the MAS may lower the SGD NEER slope in October, resulting in sharper SGD depreciation. 
  • Given weak external fundamentals, the INR and IDR should continue to depreciate against the USD in the coming weeks but the INR will be more resilient as favourable July CPI and WPI inflation data have increased the likelihood of RBI easing on or before the 29 September meeting. 
  • The USD/MYR is expected to hit 4.20 by the end of September, after which it should stabilise lower on the back of the resolution of the political situation and a steady rise in commodity prices.
  • Another BoK rate cut is not expected this year but if the positive effect of CNY devaluation on Korean exports does not become apparent and the expectations for a BoJ QQE expansion grow, the likelihood of USD/KRW rising above 1200 and extra BoK easing will increase.
  • Market Data
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