Guide to today’s vital data & events

Today is the last trading day of the month and remains a day with medium event risk, nevertheless some dockets, especially from US could be market moving.

Data released so far -

• Australia - Private sector credit data released showed growth of 6.2% YoY, whereas monthly increment remained stable at 0.5%.

• New Zealand - Business confidence data grew to 34.4. It recovered well after its slump to 13 in September 2014.

• Japan - Housing data released remained mixed, construction orders jumped by 27.5% compared to previous 7.5% but housing starts continue its fall since March 2014. It fell by another 13%.

Upcoming -

• France - Consumer spending data to be released at 7:45 GMT. It's a low key data but vital to gauge the mood of consumers. Could impact bond yield differential.

• Switzerland - KOF indicator data to be released at 8:00 GMT will be vital to assess the fallout from stronger franc as it is a leading indicator showing business mood. Worsening will sour the mood for franc further.

• Spain - HICP inflation data at 8:00 GMT & current account balance at 9:00 GMT. Inflation is expected to fall but current account would be very vital to assess how the reforms have progressed. Better data will affirm the recent progress and might send its bond yields lower.

• Italy - Consumer inflation data to be published at 10:00 GMT. Not much impact is expected but will be vital to assess the deflationary situation across Europe.

• Greece - GDP data to be released at 10:00 GMT along with PPI & retail sales. Very vital to assess, how economy performed under current turmoil & election. GDP prints have been positive since September 2014. A negative print would sour the mood for Greek bonds, stock market & Euro too. Positive print is not expected to impact Euro much but bonds & stocks, especially Greek banks will cheer. Retail sales would be vital to watch as data started to sour over the turmoil.

• Portugal - GDP data to be released at sometime today would be vital to gauge the growth momentum. YoY prints have been positive since February 2014. Negative print will make the market worried over the progress.

• Germany - Inflation data to be released at 13:00 GMT. A positive print will help the Euro to stand ground for now.

• US - Very meaningful data to be released. GDP at 13:30 GMT along with personal consumption expenditure. A very good print might help the dollar in securing 8 months consecutive rise. Chicago PMI to be released at 14:45 GMT. Pending mom sales to be released at 15:00 GMT. Michigan consumer sentiment index is the last data to be released at 15:00.

• US - FED's William Dudley to speak at 15:15 GMT, usually good at clues of the monetary policy path ahead. FED's Stanley Fischer to speak at 16:30 GMT, very vital to assess what are the issues FED is worried about.