Gold's Tug-of-War: CPI Dip vs. Tariff Support, $3400 Target in Sight

Gold prices dipped following robust US inflation figures, yet potential tariff implications are providing downside support.  It hit a low of $3320 yesterday  and is currently trading around $33

The U.S. Consumer Price Index for June 2025 indicates a modest acceleration in inflation, with headline CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month to 2.7% year-over-year—its highest annual rate since February—while core CPI increased 0.2% monthly to 2.9% annually, aligning with expectations. Price increases were predominantly driven by shelter, energy, and food costs, yet economists suggest underlying inflation remains contained by temporary factors, allowing the Federal Reserve to likely maintain its patient stance on rate adjustments.

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause in the Jul 30th, 2025, meeting have increased to 97.40% from 93.80% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
 
Gold prices are holding above the short-term moving average 34 EMA and  55 EMA and the long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3320 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3300/$3295/$3275/$3245. The near-term resistance is at $3350 with potential price targets at $3385/$3400/43420$3450/$3475/$3500/$3550.

It is good to buy on dips around $3300 with a stop-loss at $3275 for a target price of $3400.