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Goldman Sachs has issued a warning about growing risks to global energy markets, pointing to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for oil and gas shipments. In a research note dated Sunday, the bank outlined scenarios where geopolitical tensions could significantly impact oil and natural gas prices.
According to Goldman Sachs, if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz were reduced by 50% for just one month, followed by an ongoing 10% disruption for the next 11 months, Brent crude could briefly surge to $110 per barrel. This scenario highlights the waterway’s critical role in global oil supply, with around 20% of the world’s crude passing through it.
The bank also analyzed the impact of a sudden drop in Iranian oil exports. A reduction of 1.75 million barrels per day in Iranian output could lead to Brent crude peaking at around $90 per barrel. This projection underscores how sensitive the global oil market is to supply shocks, especially amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Market analysts have increasingly focused on the Strait of Hormuz due to recent military escalations involving Iran and the United States. Any sustained supply interruption could trigger inflationary pressures, disrupt trade, and increase market volatility.
Goldman’s projections add to growing concerns among investors and policymakers as energy security becomes more uncertain. With the potential for rapid price hikes in oil and gas, markets are bracing for increased volatility and possible long-term effects on global economic stability.
These developments could also impact industries dependent on oil, from transportation to manufacturing, making energy supply risk a central issue for global markets in the months ahead.
