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Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price outlook, raising its December 2026 forecast to $4,900 per ounce from a previous estimate of $4,300. The investment bank attributes this bullish revision to surging Western exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and sustained central bank gold purchases, both of which continue to strengthen market fundamentals.
As of early Tuesday, spot gold traded around $3,960 per ounce, just below a fresh record high of $3,977.19. The precious metal has already soared over 51% in 2025, driven by a combination of robust central bank buying, rising ETF demand, a weaker U.S. dollar, and heightened interest from retail investors seeking a safe-haven asset amid growing global tensions and trade uncertainties.
Goldman analysts emphasized that the risks remain tilted to the upside, noting that private sector diversification could push ETF holdings even higher than anticipated. The firm expects central banks to purchase an average of 80 metric tons of gold in 2025 and about 70 tons in 2026, as emerging economies continue diversifying their reserves away from the U.S. dollar and into gold.
The bank also predicts Western ETF holdings will grow further, supported by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by mid-2026. This anticipated easing cycle is likely to enhance gold’s appeal as a yield-free asset.
Goldman noted that speculative positioning has remained relatively stable and that ETF holdings are now aligned with the firm’s rate-based projections. The analysts concluded that the recent surge in ETF demand reflects sustained, not speculative, investor confidence in gold’s long-term value.
