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Gold prices trade slightly lower ahead of Fed Powell speech in Jackson Hole symposium. pared some of its gains on diminishing rate cut hopes. It hit a low of $3323 yesterday and is currently trading around $3345.78.
With starting unemployment claims climbing by 11,000 to 235,000, surpassing estimates of 225,000, and continuous claims hitting a three-year high of 1.97 million, the US labor market showed signs of easing for the week ending August 16, 2025. However, the insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.3%. Following solid July indicators in new orders (18.4), shipments (23.7), and employment (10.3), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for August decreased to 5.9 from 15.9 in July, suggesting continuing but slower expansion in regional manufacturing. These trends point to a manufacturing industry that is still expanding but under limited pressure in the labor market.
With futures suggesting an 80–99% likelihood of a September cut among 4.3% unemployment and over-target inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Friday keynote at the 2025 Jackson Hole conference, themed "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," is critical as markets expect signals on rate cuts. Conversations with world central bankers such as Christine Lagarde and Kazuo Ueda address changing labor dynamics, including slower hiring and aging workforces, as the Fed steers a softening labor market and continuing inflation. Powell's tone could either ignite a risk-asset rally if dovish or trigger sell-offs if wary; investors will be analyzing his remarks for cues on the Fed's inflation tolerance and policy pivot timing.
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Sep 17th, 2025, have decreased to 71.30% from 85.40% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding below short-term moving averages, 34 EMA and 55 EMA, and the long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3320, and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3300/$3290/$3275/$3245/$3200. The near-term resistance is at $3340 with potential price targets at $3355/$3374/$3385/$3400/$3420/$3450/$3475/$3500/$3550.
It is good to buy on dips around $3320 with a stop-loss at $3300 for a target price of $3400.
