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Gold prices trade flat ahead of US Fed monetary policy. It hit a high of $2772 and currently trading around $2762.
Recent Economic Data Impacting Market Sentiment
On January 29, 2025, fresh figures regarding U.S. durable goods orders were released, reflecting how the manufacturing sector was performing. The total core durable goods orders rose by 0.3%, which is lower than the estimate of 0.4% but more positive than last month's decline at -0.2%. All in all, as of this data, durable goods orders declined by 2.2%, while a projected increase of 0.3% occurred after the last decline of 1.2%. In other reports, the S&P/CS Composite-20 Home Price Index surged to 4.3% from 4.2% expected; the monthly change was 0.3%, below the forecast of 0.4%. Richmond Manufacturing Index has a mild contraction at -4, better than -10 and worse than an expected -13. Consumer confidence also fell. The index has dropped to 104.1 from December's 109.5. It is less than the estimated 105.6. The Present Situation Index also decreased significantly from 144 to 134.3, indicating an even worse outlook of the current condition
Federal Reserve's Cautious Stance on Interest Rates
Interest rates are expected to be maintained at 4.25% and 4.50% by the Federal Reserve with carefulness based on the continued inflationary concerns. From here, cuts in rates will also come in gradually because that will depend upon how the economy performs.
Rate Pause Sentiments Climb
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause in Jan 29th 2025 meeting have increased to 99.50% up from 98.90% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding above short-term moving averages 34 EMA and 55 EMA and long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $2745 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal $2720/$2700/$2670/$2660/$2650/$2,630,$2600/ $2,570, $2,559, $2,536, and eventually $2,500. The near-term resistance is at $2775, with potential price targets at $2790/$2810. It is good to buy on dips around $2725-27, with a stop-loss at $2700 for a target price of $2790/$2810.
