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Gold Prices Hold Near $4,400 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Fade

Gold Prices Hold Near $4,400 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Fade. Source: Image by Robert Owen-Wahl from Pixabay

Gold prices remained close to the $4,400-an-ounce mark on Tuesday as weaker U.S. economic data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, while escalating Middle East tensions boosted safe-haven demand.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) gained 0.3% to $4,429.49 an ounce, while gold futures advanced 0.3% to $4,486.07. Silver rose 0.8% to $66.28 an ounce, and platinum edged 0.2% higher to $1,776.29. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index was broadly unchanged near 99.57.

Gold has climbed roughly 1.5% over the past two sessions, extending its recovery from around $4,000. Recent softer U.S. economic indicators have weakened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year. Interest-rate markets no longer fully price in another Fed hike before year-end, easing a major source of pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.

Despite the improved rate outlook, long-term Treasury yields remain elevated. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest level in nearly two decades amid concerns over government spending, increased debt issuance and persistent inflation risks. While higher yields typically weigh on bullion, worries about rising government debt have strengthened gold's appeal as a defensive asset.

Gold is also testing important technical levels after moving back toward its 100-day moving average. Investors are watching resistance around $4,440 to $4,450, followed by the 200-day moving average near $4,503. A sustained breakout above these levels could strengthen expectations for a recovery toward $5,000.

Geopolitical uncertainty is providing additional support. Renewed fighting in Lebanon, tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and continued shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about energy prices and inflation.

China has also contributed to gold demand through stronger investor interest and central-bank purchases. Markets will next focus on minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole remarks for clues on the U.S. interest-rate outlook.

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