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Gold pared most of its gains as demand for safe-haven assets diminished. It hit an intraday high of $3334 and is currently trading around $3327.
The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has decreased in recent weeks due to better trade relations between the US and the EU, with Brussels revealing faster-than-5-1/2-year negotiations to avoid what many interpret as unlikely triggers of an ongoing trade war. Following this, gold prices have experienced a slight drop, hovering around $3,347 per ounce, and gold-backed ETFs have been disappearing for five weeks in ten consecutive weeks since midway through April, indicating weakened investor appetite.
Gold prices have remained at historically high levels, with a year-to-date increase of over 25% and analysts expect further support from ongoing geopolitical risks, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and concerns about the US budget deficit and inflation. Gold's value remains strong despite the immediate decline in its appeal due to trade tensions and stronger equity markets. However, global risks still hold significance.
Rate Hike Expectations: Market Sentiment Shifts
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause on the June 18th, 2025 meeting have increased to 97.90% from 94.70% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices hold above short-term moving averages 34 EMA above 55 EMA and long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3300 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3300/$3279/3264/$3230/$3200/$3165/$3135/$3100/$3000. The near-term resistance is at $3350 with potential price targets at $3365/$3378/$3400/$3415/$3465/$3500.
It is good to sell on rallies around $3328-30 with a stop-loss at $3365 for a target price of $3200.
