Gold Dips as Geopolitical Tensions Ease; Trade Deal Impact and Rate Hike Bets in Focus

Gold pared most of its gains on easing geopolitical tension. It hits an intraday low of $3213  and is currently trading around $3215.

In a landmark deal sealed following a series of high-level trade negotiations in Geneva, China, and the United States have pledged to freeze and roll back partially the newly imposed tariffs on one another's products, cutting tariffs by 24 percentage points for 90 days and leaving behind only a 10% ad valorem tariff on targeted products. The U.S. will lift tariffs stated in Executive Orders 14259 and 14266, to which China responds by halting retaliatory tariffs and stopping non-tariff countermeasures. The two nations will also create a new platform for future trade talks in order to settle issues that affect bigger economies and promote sustainable partnership trade, offering relief to global markets burdened by rising tariffs.

Rate Hike Expectations: Market Sentiment Shifts

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of  rate pause in June 18th 2025 meeting have increased to 92.10% from 72.40% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy

Gold prices are holding below short-term moving averages of 34 EMA and above 55 EMA and long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3167 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3136/$3100/$3000. The near-term resistance is at $3245 with potential price targets at $3265/3279/$3300/$3365/$3378/$3400/$3415/$3465/$3500.

It  is good to sell on rallies around $3228-30  with a stop-loss  at $3250 for a target price of $3005.