Global Leading Indicator still flat

The Global Leading Indicator by UniCredit rose slightly to minus 0.1 standard deviations in February from minus 0.2. 

Hence, it continued to remain in a narrow range, basically signaling further stagnation in global trade going forward.

A similar subdued signal has also been coming from the OECD Leading Indicator in the last few months. The disconnect between our early-bird indicator and global trade remained in place, albeit to a less pronounced extent.
 
On a 3M-3M basis, global trade was up 0.9% in December (latest available data) after +1.7% in the previous month.
 
Unicredit notes as follows on Wednesday:

• Our analysis of subcomponents' location over business cycle phases still indicates a rather weak picture in February.
   
• Only three of the ten variables flagged expansion: the Ifo business expectations component; the new orders-to-inventories ratio in the eurozone manufacturing sector and EMU consumer confidence. 
  
  
• The Global Manufacturing PMI was in (moderate) recovery territory. Business sentiment among companies in the EMU construction sector signaled a slowdown.
   
• Taiwanese and Korean exports, the Singapore Electronics PMI, the new-orders-to-inventories ratio in the US manufacturing sector and US initial jobless claims were in downturn territory.