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Global Economic Outlook

TD Economics notes in a report as follows ....

  • Global economic growth disappointed last year. Lower oil prices and stimulus measures across much of the world will help lead to a modest pickup this year. From 3.3% in 2014, we expect world economic growth to accelerate to 3.5% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016.

  • The improvement in economic growth will be entirely driven by advanced economies this year, as emerging markets are facing a number of headwinds, compounded by a continued slowdown in China. Russia and Brazil, in particular, are dealing with severe challenges. Emerging markets are expected to provide more of a lift in 2016, as headwinds fade.

  • Among advanced economies, the forecast for U.S. growth has softened slightly, owing to another weak start in the first quarter. In contrast, stimulus measures are starting to bear fruit in Europe, where growth prospects have improved.

  • The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are continuing their quantitative easing programs, while the Federal Reserve is set to hike rates later this year. This suggests continued dollar strength. Emerging market currencies have tumbled in the wake of this strength with more volatility likely ahead.

  • Market Data
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