German economic growth likely to have retained strong momentum in Q4 2017 - Barclays

The latest data releases for Germany imply that the economic growth has retained solid momentum in the fourth quarter of 2017, noted Barclays in a research report. The headline factory orders grew more than expectations by 3.8 percent sequentially in December, ending the year at a new record-high level. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the factory orders in Germany showed strong dynamics. On the contrary, industrial output contracted in the month, widely consistent with expectations, while quarterly growth dropped marginally to 0.7 percent.

Robust December data releases show the effect of political uncertainty on growth in the fourth quarter has been limited. The combination of foreign trade growth boosted by global economic rebound and improving domestic demand underpinned manufacturing production growth in the second half of 2017. Manufacturing output is expected to maintain buoyant momentum at the beginning of 2018.

Robust external demand is expected to continue underpinning the manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2018, given the buoyant optimism of January IFO and PMI surveys. Fiscal stimulus is expected to begin underpinning domestic investment and consumption in the second quarter of 2018.

“Overall, the quarterly pace of factory orders and IP growth bodes well for our GDP growth forecast for Q4 17 (0.7 percent q/q) and Q1 18 (0.6 percent q/q)”, added Barclays.

At 21:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of Euro was bearish at -86.7558, while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was slightly bullish at 66.4162. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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