GBP/JPY Struggles Below 200: Sluggish UK Economy Dampens Bullish Breakout Prospects

GBPJPY has declined again after a small rise above 200. The intraday trend is neutral as long as the resistance at 200.35 holds. Currently, trading around 199.914, the pair reached an intraday high of 199.919.

The UK economy saw no growth (0.0%) in July 2025, according to the latest GDP data from the Office for National Statistics. This stagnation followed a positive growth of 0.4% in June and matched analysts' expectations. The economy's slowdown continued, with growth dropping from 0.7% in Q1 2025 to 0.3% in Q2. Over the three months leading to July, growth was only 0.2% compared to the previous three months, highlighting ongoing weakness. This situation supports Chancellor Rachel Reeves' view that while the economy isn't broken, it feels stuck. The lack of growth mainly stemmed from declines in manufacturing, which outweighed small increases in services and construction. Although sectors like health and computer programming showed some improvement, it wasn't enough for overall growth. Economists expect ongoing growth challenges for the rest of 2025, partly due to global tariffs affecting demand and signs of weakness in the UK labor market. The Bank of England forecasts an annual growth rate of just 1.25% for this year.

The pair is trading above 55 and  200 EMA  and  365 EMA (long-term) on the 4-hour chart, confirming a bullish trend.  Any violation below 199.20 indicates the intraday trend is weak. A dip to 198.75 /198/197.85/197.25/ 196.70/196.20/195 is possible.  Immediate resistance is at 200.35 a breach above this level targets of 202/203.

Market Indicators ( 4-hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

Directional movement index -  Neutral

Trading Strategy: Buy

 
 It Is good to buy on dips above 200.35 with SL around 199.65 for a TP of 202.