GBP/JPY Pulls Back After UK Retail Sales Beat: Bullish Trend Holds Above Key Support

GBP/JPY showed a minor pullback after strong UK retail sales. It hit a high of  199.72 and is currently trading around 199.623. Intraday trend is neutral as long as the resistance at 200.28 holds.

With a 0.6% increase in July 2025, UK retail sales exceeded predictions of 0.2%; annual growth reached 1.1%, somewhat below expectations of 1.3%. The three-month trend remained negative with a 0.6% drop despite this monthly improvement, therefore concluding four quarters of expansion. Along with increases in non-food stores and internet sales, good weather and events like the UEFA Women's Euro 2025 lifted food store sales by 2.5%. Data changes, however, showed exaggerated expansion earlier in 2025, including a strong cut to June's growth from 0.9% to 0.3%, somewhat lowering Q1 GDP predictions. Although July's strong performance gives some hope, the UK retail scene is still under pressure from more general industry difficulties and low consumer confidence.

The pair is trading above 55 and  200 EMA  and  365 EMA (long-term) on the 1-hour chart, confirming a bullish trend.  Any violation below 199.20 indicates the intraday trend is weak. A dip to 198.75 198/197.85/197.25/ 196.70/196.20/195 is possible.  Immediate resistance is at 199.75; a breach above this level targets 200.28/202.

Market Indicators ( 4-hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

Directional movement index -  Bullish

Trading Strategy: Buy

 
 It is good to buy above 200.28 with SL around 199.70 for a TP of 202.