GBP/JPY Faces a Crossroad: Market Influences and Technical Insights

The GBP/JPY lost its shine on board-based Yen strength. It hit an intraday low of 189.88 and is currently trading around 190.24. Intraday trend is bullish as long as support 189.30 holds.

Upcoming BoE Monetary Policy

The Bank of England is due to release its Monetary Policy Report and the interest rate decision on February 6. Economists in a majority are predicting a cut of 25 basis points that will bring down the rate to 4.75%, helping economic activity pick up.

The BoE is going to cut growth projections for the UK and is likely to say inflation will peak at 2.8% in the third quarter of 2025, higher than its target of 2%. Committee members are divided over how soon to loosen their policy, with some wanting faster cuts.

Market expectations are of a dovish stance by the BoE in recent times, on account of new challenges such as U.S. trade issues. Most analysts still expect three quarter-point cuts during 2025 and a fair chance of an outright cut on February 6. The growth forecast may remain at around 1%-1.5%, much like the previous year.

Technical Analysis of GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY pair is trading below 34 and 55 EMA (Short-term) and 200 EMA (long-term) on the 4-hour chart, confirming a bearish trend. Immediate resistance is at 191; a breach above this level targets of 191.78/192.21/193/193.36/194/195/195.60/196.25/197. Downside support is at 189.85 with additional levels at 189.30/188.70/188.

Market Indicators

CCI (50)- bearish

Directional movement index - bearish

 It is recommended to sell on rallies around 190.78-80 with a stop-loss at 192.21 for a TP of 188/183.80.