GBP/JPY Bulls Eye 200 as Weak Yen and Fed–BoJ Rate Gap Fuel Intraday Rally

The GBP/JPY gained slightly on a weak yen. It hit an intraday high of  199.09 and is currently trading around 199.06.  Intraday trend is bullish as long as support 197.40 holds.

While the BoJ is scheduled to keep its 0. 5% rate on July 31, with core inflation in Tokyo above 2% and rising wages but awaiting clear proof of persistent price increase, markets anticipate the Fed to hold its 4 25–4. 50% funds target at its July 30 meeting—balancing cooling inflation (notwithstanding tariff-driven pressures) against a resilient labor market, with officials signaling patience before possible cuts later in 2025. Though most other major central banks move toward easing or milder tightening, generating volatile capital flows and carry-trade dynamics, the roughly 4-point Fed–BoJ rate gap still weighs on the yen and backs the dollar. Investors will keep an eye on any Fed hints on the timing of rate cuts, BoJ forward guidance on future hikes, and the USD/JPY outlook going forward, all of which will fuel bond, equity, and currency markets.

The GBP/JPY pair is trading above  55 and above 200 EMA (Short-term) and 365 EMA (long-term) on the 15-min chart, confirming a mixed trend.  Any violation below 198.40 indicates the intraday trend is weak. A dip to 198/197.70/197.40/196.70/196.25/195.25/194/193.70 is possible.  Immediate resistance is at 199.20, a breach above this level targets 200/202/204.

Market Indicators (15-min chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

Directional movement index - Bullish

Trading Strategy:  Buy

 
 It Is good to buy on dips around 198.75-80 with SL around 198  for a TP of 202.