FxWirePro: Wheat price another 15 percent on Trump’s put

Wheat showing signs of recovery,

• Earlier this month, the price of Wheat in the United States declined to the worst level since 2017 as the Sino-American trade negotiations failed to yield results and both sides once again resorting to tariff war. Earlier this month, President Trump hiked the tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent, and China responded by imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth U.S. goods.
• While China is not the prime buyer of U.S. Wheat, the jolt was felt across the commodity market. The U.S. is the third biggest exporter of Wheat. In 2018, the U.S. exported $5.4 billion worth of Wheat or 14 percent of global Wheat exports.

As a result of the trade war between the U.S. and China, the Wheat price declined to 418 cents per bushel. However, President Trump successfully placed a floor over it. The price is currently trading at 466 cents per bushel, up around 12 percent.

Here is the Trump put,

• “Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner - there is absolutely no need to rush - as Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products. These massive payments go directly to the Treasury of the U.S.... ....The process has begun to place additional Tariffs at 25% on the remaining 325 Billion Dollars. The U.S. only sells China approximately 100 Billion Dollars of goods & products, a very big imbalance. With the over 100 Billion Dollars in Tariffs that we take in, we will buy..... ....agricultural products from our Great Farmers, in larger amounts than China ever did, and ship it to poor & starving countries in the form of humanitarian assistance. In the meantime we will continue to negotiate with China in the hopes that they do not again try to redo deal!”
• “We are right where we want to be with China. Remember, they broke the deal with us & tried to renegotiate. We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries... ....We will then spend (match or better) the money that China may no longer be spending with our Great Patriot Farmers (Agriculture), which is a small percentage of total Tariffs received, and distribute the food to starving people in nations around the world! GREAT! #MAGA”

With a put like that, we expect Wheat and other grain prices to rise.

Trade idea:

Our calculations at FxWirePro suggests that Wheat price is set to rise further towards 545 cents per bushel. However, there is strong selling pressure on wheat independent of the trade war and largely due to sufficient supply in the market. A break above 480 cents area required to ebb the selling pressure.