FxWirePro- USDCAD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias - Bullish

USDCAD showed a follow-through buying after 250 pips the previous week. US dollar gained momentum in expectations of a 75 bpbs rate hike by the Fed this week. Canadian housing starts to decline by 3% to a seasonally annualized rate of 267443 units in Aug, above the estimate of 264000. University of Michigan consumer confidence surged to 59.5 in Sep from 58.2 in Aug. It hits an intraday high of 1.33159 and is currently trading around 1.32873.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 75 bpbs rate hike in Sep dropped to 82% from 91% a week ago.

Technically in the 4-Hour chart, the pair is holding above the short-term( 21- EMA),  55- EMA, and the long-term moving average of 200 EMA (1.2841). Any violation above 1.3325 confirms further bullishness. A jump to 1.3350/1.3435 is possible.

WTI crude oil trades weak on recession fears. Any breach below $80 confirms further bearishness.  

The near-term support is around 1.3260, and any breach below targets 1.3215/1.3170-/1.3120/1.3070.

Indicators (4 Hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

ADX- Bullish

It is good to buy on dips around  1.3260 with SL around 1.3200 for TP of 1.3435.