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FxWirePro: USD/JPY struggles to hold above 109 handle, minor weakness likely on retrace below 110-EMA

  • USD/JPY is trading in a narrow range, hovers around 100-DMA at 108.95.
     
  • The major failed to hold gains above 109 handle on Tuesday's trade, closed at 108.80 after hitting fresh 2-month highs at 109.20.
     
  • Data released earlier today showed Japan's Coincident Index for February missed expectations, printed at 116.1.
     
  • On the data front, US PCE price index,  inflation numbers and GDP will be in focus for further impetus.
     
  • The pair has broken above 38.2% Fib and break above 100-DMA can accentuate upside, scope then for test of 200-DMA at 110.27.
     
  • Technical indicators on weekly charts are also turning bullish. Price has broken above 21W EMA.
     
  • Stochs have rolled over from oversold levels and MACD is on verge of a bullish crossover on signal line.
     
  • On the flipside, we see minor weakness below 110-EMA. Bearish invalidation likely on break below 55-EMA.

Support levels - 108.59 (110-EMA), 108.49 (38.2% Fib), 108.28 (5-DMA), 107.52 (55-EMA)

Resistance levels - 109.31 (cloud top), 109.68 (50% Fib), 110, 110.26 (200-DMA)

Recommendation: Watch out for decisive break above 100-DMA to go long. Target 109.30/ 109.70/ 110/ 110.25.

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