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Chart - Courtesy Trading View
Spot Analysis:
USD/JPY was trading 0.19% lower on the day at 115.85 at around 04:45 GMT
Previous Week's High/ Low: 115.22/ 114.31
Previous Session's High/ Low: 116.24/ 115.62
Fundamental Overview:
FOMC minutes overnight showed Fed policymakers discussed faster rate-hike and plans for balance-sheet normalization during the latest FOMC meeting.
The US dollar got an unexpected boost from the US Federal Reserve’s Meeting Minutes. DXY erased early losses to edge higher from session lows at 95.88 and closed at 96.18.
US policymakers noted that “In light of elevated inflation pressures and the strengthening labor market, participants judged that the increase in policy accommodation provided by the ongoing pace of net asset purchases was no longer necessary.”
Given the strong US ADP Employment Change for December, 804K versus 400K expected, statements from the Fed Minutes propelled the US bond coupons.
The Fed interest rate futures now pointed at the 80% chance of a hike in March 2022 after the Fed minutes.
Cautious market sentiment prevails ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), trading likely to be muted.
Technical Analysis:
- USD/JPY trades above cloud and major moving averages
- Volatility is high and rising, MACD and ADX support gains
- Oscillators are at overbought levels, some pullbacks likely
- GMMA shows some weakness on near-term moving averages on the intraday charts
Major Support and Resistance Levels:
Support - 115.69 (5-DMA), 115.22 (200H MA)
Resistance - 116, 116.23 (Upper BB)
Summary: USD/JPY seeing some technical weakness. Pullbacks are likely to be shallow. Risk-off market conditions and hawkish Fed to drive further gains. 88.6% Fib at 116.66 is the next immediate resistance ahead of 117 mark.
