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The indifference of FX markets to trade/geopolitical risks has also extended to the run of downward revisions in the global cyclical outlook over the past two months.
Despite the large fall in global PMIs, high-beta FX is if anything stronger, while forecast revisions have recently become a poor basis for systematic FX trading. We offer three reasons for this growth/FX breakdown:
1) The pullback in various cyclical indicators cannot yet be distinguished from mere payback of earlier over-exuberance at the turn of the year;
2) The data has yet to significantly impact central bank policy-speak, nor market pricing of policy;
3) The dispersion of surprises and revisions muddle, rather than signal clear cyclical out- and under-performers.
The implications are thus similar to those we’ve drawn from recent trade and geopolitical risk: it is concerning and worth monitoring but does not yet warrant a comprehensive rethink of forecast directionally, rank-order of performance, or medium-term strategy.
Strategy: Stay relatively light on risk, but add to CAD longs (vs USD), add long AUDJPY, and take profit on long NOKSEK.
Next two weeks: China economic data, ECB, BoJ, BoC, Riksbank, G3 flash PMI, 1Q GDP, and trade globally.
Currency Strength Index: Ahead of data announcements such as Philly Fed manufacturing index, US unemployment claims, and FOMC members’ speeches, FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index is edging higher at 43 levels (bullish) while articulating (at 06:02 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
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