What is clear today though, is that the short-term pre-FOMC risk is of a break higher in EUR/USD for no obvious reasons than positions reduction, upon resultant forces Euro's gains against dollar to reach at 1.11 areas. Buying one touch binary calls would determine huge yields for sure.
On the contrary, with spot FX flashes of EURUSD at 1.1025 we see delta risk reversal for 1 week contracts have shown slight recovery signals but long term (1M-1Y) put contracts are on higher demand.
EURUSD has been in the list of top 3 pairs to perceive highest implied volatility of 1W at the money contracts among G20 currency space, almost close to 13%.
More importantly, the contracts of this pair for 3m-1y expiries show gradual increase in negative sentiments. So, from this computation what we could read is that EUR may gain until tomorrow's Fed's rate decision and thereafter eyeing on Yellen's statements we could foresee dollar's appreciation as quite certain event.
As a reminder, this higher IV represents how much movement today's FX market expects from EURUSD during US sessions and the life span of the option. In that respect, an option buyer is partially buying the market's expectations for this pair.
We would like to buy long term put back spreads contemplating the 25 delta risk reversals as the EURUSD's broader perspectives are weaker in long run.
If more price actions occur at the fat tails, the option trader will mark volatility higher for out-of-money (OTM) and in-the-money (ITM) options then at-the-money (ATM) options and so does happen with EURUSD pair currently.


FxWirePro: USD/CAD uptrend loses steam, remains on bullish path
FxWirePro- Woodies pivot (Major)
FxWirePro:GBP/USD recovers slightly from early decline but bears are not done yet
AUDJPY Bears Take a Breather at 111.50, But ‘Sell on Rallies’ Still Eyes 110
EURJPY Bounce Loses Steam Below 184 — Sell-the-Rally Setup Eyes 183 Target
FxWirePro: USD/ZAR slips as dollar weakens after PCE inflation data
FxWirePro: USD/ZAR remains buoyant, looks to extend gains
Bitcoin Sheds $491M in ETF Outflows and Retreats Below $64K; Sellers Reload for $50K
FxWirePro- Major Crypto levels and bias summary
FxWirePro: USD/JPY dips as Japanese Yen consolidates near 40-year low
ETH Bounces as Shorts Cover, Yet ETF Bleed Warns $1,850 Resistance Won’t Break
FxWirePro- Woodies pivot (Major)
FxWirePro: GBP/AUD edges higher but bullish outlook persists
FxWirePro- Major Pair levels and bias summary
NZDJPY Bears Reload as 92 Resistance Caps Bounce; Sell-on-Rallies Eyed Toward 90
BTC Slips Below $60K as Institutional Demand Dries Up — Bears Eye $59K Support, Rallies to $63K for Shorts




