How the war in Iran is already affecting UK farmers and food production 
God on their side: how the US, Israel and Iran are all using religion to garner support 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
Is dark chocolate healthier than milk chocolate? 2 dietitians explain 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
How will the Iran war change the Middle East? We asked 5 experts 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
Morgan Stanley: Fed Rate Cuts Still on Track Despite Oil-Driven Inflation 
The headwinds we highlighted last week for EM FX remain; negative EM political news flow is high, US tax reform discussions continue to provide upside USD risk, and EM FX positioning remains crowded even though outflows are picking up. As such, we add to our bearish stance and move underweight TRY, leaving us underweight in EMEA EM FX overall.
We encourage UW in the JPM’s GBI-EM Model Portfolio with an UW in ZAR and TRY vs. OW in RUB, and OW in PLN and CZK hedged against UW in RON. We also buy a 2m 4.10 USDTRY call option in outright trades.
Outright trades:
08-Jan-18 USDTRY call (4.10), spot reference: 3.8856
Short ZAR vs basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD)
Short EURCZK spot reference: 25.55
Long ILS vs. basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD) spot reference: 4.1460 (EURILS), 3.5101 (USDILS)
01-Mar-18 EURHUF downside seagull (Long put spread (304, 297), short call (312)), spot reference: 311.720.
