China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
Goldman Sachs: US Dollar Likely to Stay Strong Despite Oil Price Retreat 
China’s AI Manufacturing Boom Masks Weak Consumer Economy, Citi Says 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Bank Regulation Rollbacks in the U.S. and UK Could Increase Financial Risks, Study Warns 
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
AI Memory Boom Sparks Global Chip Supply Crunch 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
Silver Cracks Key 365-Day EMA for First Time Since Feb 2024; Bears Eye $50 on Rallies 
Stay long SEK vs EUR (cash) and NZD (options) EURSEK continued its steady but nevertheless persistent decline this week as an extremely strong PPI print supported the sense that the inflation cycle in Sweden is gaining momentum. The relationship between PPI and CPI is rather loose but at 6.5% PPI is at its highest level in a decade and consistent with CPIF moving above 2%.
As we wrote last-week, the Riksbank forecast a slight decline in CPIF this year, so may soon be in the unusual position of having to respond to upside inflation surprise (a high-class problem, admittedly).
We remain long SEK, although with EURSEK having already retraced 60% of the Riksbank-inspired rally from 9.12 last April to 10.00 in December, the pace of gains are likely to slow, at least ahead of the next CPI print on February 17.
Stay short in EURSEK spot FX at reference 9.4237 with stop at 9.6637.
Add longs in 6m NZD put/SEK call, strike 6.3322 for 1.47%. Spot reference 6.3585.
