As you could see EURJPY 6m implied volatility too elevated, as it is unsupported by both 6m and 1m realized volatilities suggesting a decent risk premium to be monetized.
The variance swap recommended above expresses our views in the volatility space. Investors desiring to get a directional bullish exposure in EURJPY can take advantage of the current volatility surface confirmation by buying a topside seagull that is short both the excessive volatility and skew.
Relative value in the EURJPY volatility surface strongly suggests selling 6m and 1y low strikes, which are now valued at a premium above the shorter tenors. The RR curve strongly steepens beyond the 3m expiry, and the corresponding RR levels are trading above their median level, unlike the shorter segment (see above graph).
We recommend buying a EURJPY 6m call spread about one figure out of the money and with a strike width slightly exceeding four figures. This strategy can be fully financed by selling a 25-delta put. In terms of levels in current conditions, it amounts to buying a topside seagull with strikes 114/123.5/128.
This structure appears to be more appropriate when volatility is high but likely to likely to shrink, and the price is expected to trade with a lack of certainty on direction. Despite the limiting yields since they are spread structures rather than vanilla structures ITM longs would give magnifying impact in the payoffs.


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