As you could see EURJPY 6m implied volatility too elevated, as it is unsupported by both 6m and 1m realized volatilities suggesting a decent risk premium to be monetized.
The variance swap recommended above expresses our views in the volatility space. Investors desiring to get a directional bullish exposure in EURJPY can take advantage of the current volatility surface confirmation by buying a topside seagull that is short both the excessive volatility and skew.
Relative value in the EURJPY volatility surface strongly suggests selling 6m and 1y low strikes, which are now valued at a premium above the shorter tenors. The RR curve strongly steepens beyond the 3m expiry, and the corresponding RR levels are trading above their median level, unlike the shorter segment (see above graph).
We recommend buying a EURJPY 6m call spread about one figure out of the money and with a strike width slightly exceeding four figures. This strategy can be fully financed by selling a 25-delta put. In terms of levels in current conditions, it amounts to buying a topside seagull with strikes 114/123.5/128.
This structure appears to be more appropriate when volatility is high but likely to likely to shrink, and the price is expected to trade with a lack of certainty on direction. Despite the limiting yields since they are spread structures rather than vanilla structures ITM longs would give magnifying impact in the payoffs.


Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift?
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data




