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The pair has dropped below 7DMA again and amid a major downtrend we spotted out a gravestone doji at 138.944 levels on weekly charts.
We are not isolating this signal, both leading and lagging oscillators indicate selling pressures.
The current prices are attempting to drift below 21DMAs on daily charts, so downtrend would likely continue in the short & medium run as well.
While selling momentum seems to have been intensified as we can make out from the leading oscillators converging downwards along with the dipping prices.
RSI (14) trending below 43 levels that signals the strength in selling interests.
To substantiate this bearish stance, a convincing %k crossing below on slow stochastic from above overbought territory is one more strong signal for intensified selling momentum.
Moreover, you can see whipsaws pattern on daily charts and price dips likely considering previous upswings.
On a broader perspective, the price declines likely to prolong in long run amid abrupt upswings as MACD with bearish crossover has remained well below zero levels.
Trade tips:
On intraday speculative basis, since implied volatility is very high on the eve of BoJ's monetary policy, so smart way to approach this pair is to deploy the option tunnel using ATM puts is structured favouring above bearish technical indication as a binary version of a conventional put spread, i.e. long delta puts with higher strikes while writing the lower strikes for above-mentioned targets on either side.
No surprise if it hits 128.602 levels near term or 139.3856 on north during intraday sessions sooner or later.We rely on stochastic and RSI and as they pop up with overbought pressures thus far.
Therefore an In-The-Money tunnel would be formed of an In-the-money -0.75 delta put below the current exchange rate less an Out-Of-The-Money put above the exchange rate. The delta of -0.55 on combined position with slightly negative theta is preferred on this execution.
Alternatively, investors can also stay short in mid-month futures for southwards targets.
