FxWirePro: GBP/AUD’s abrupt upswings above 38.2% owing to RBA rate cuts, major trend may see minor resistance at 1.9880

The current prices have jumped above DMAs on daily charts.

Rejects near minor resistance at 1.9726 levels on monthly charts, previously upswings are certainly not a trend reversal.

As the pair drags upswings from 1.9304, interim bullish sentiments may drag these upswings maximum upto 1.9726 or even upto 1.9880 levels.

Both leading oscillators have already reached overbought region and popping up with selling pressures as we see the attempts of %D crossover above 80s on stochastic curves and RSI is also trending above 72.9 levels.

On monthly terms, although price bouncing from last two months, MACD has evidenced bearish crossover near zero levels which is a bearish trajectory.

The major downtrend seems still robust as we had stated in our previous posts as well that the breaches below crucial supports at 2.0054 and 1.9302 may expose towards 50% retracement.

So the recent upswings were only because of RBA surprising rate cutting package in May, which suggests another uncertainty owing to rate at 1.5% in coming days, probably in August. 

Multi-month we expect the Aussie dollar to eventually find its feet and help the pair drag lower. In addition, on the contrary RBA easing will be a negative for the pair.

Despite this month’s price bounces, the pair has now created a new bearish environment as it has consistently remained below 7EMA from last 7 months or so.

Bears can load weights in short as selling momentum is confirmed by leading oscillators.

The emphasis on monthly plotting that the extensive evidences of bearish trend continuation after the evidence gravestone doji and hanging man patterns at around 2.1553 and 2.1607 levels on monthly charts that are highly bearish in nature as appeared at peaks of rallies.

RSI on both daily and monthly are in convergence to the robust price declines, while %D crossover on slow stochastic still maintains even oversold territory that is one more signal for bearish momentum to continue in long run.

Hence, upon the rejection of above mentioned resistance and bear swings resumption we could foresee the retest of 1.8372 (which is 50% fibo) in the weeks to come.

So it is advisable stay short in mid-month futures contracts for the targets of 1.9313 which is next strong support and upon breach of this level once can also look forward for 2nd target at 1.8838 by expiration but strict stop loss should be maintained at 1.9726 and 1.9880 levels.