Crypto Derivatives Dashboard: Bulls Retain Control Amid $488M Liquidation Flush 
XRP Ledger Foundation Confirms 100B Supply Safe After Security Fix 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Visa Wins China Approval to Prepare Domestic Payments Expansion 
Fed Unveils Stablecoin Rules Under GENIUS Act 
Dogecoin Price Rises as Bitwise Plans DOGE ETF Closure 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
Fed’s Williams Signals One More Rate Hike Before Year-End 
BOJ Signals Faster Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Grow 
Philippines Current Account Deficit Seen at $19.1 Billion in 2026 
Bitcoin Price Faces Volatility Ahead of US CPI and Fed Speech 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
RBA Set for September Rate Hike as Inflation Stays High 
Add as a preferred source on Google
A few more central banks tiptoe to the exit 2017 was the year in which more central banks broke ranks. We expect this to continue in 2018. The Fed will hike four times and the BoC two, which supports long positions in USD and CAD.
EUR should benefit from the prospect of the ECB completing QE just as it rallied on the expectation of tapering this year.
We pair EUR vs NZD to neutralize the risk to EURUSD from a further repricing of the Fed. The RBNZ is an unlikely candidate to signal tighter policy as the slowdown in migration intensifies the downturn in housing and argues against a policy response to upside inflation risks from minimum wage increase etc. The 3m window KO halves the premium compared to a digital call.
In Sweden, the prospects of a policy pivot were delayed not derailed this year. EURSEK is currently overshooting cyclicals by over 4% the most since 2010. The rebound in inflation to 2.0% in November reduces the risk of the central bank extending QE again next week (this was 0.3% ppt higher than the Riksbank's estimate), although it could still push back the lift-off point for rates by a quarter to 3Q18 in order to better align itself with the ECB’s extension of QE through September.
Long a 9-mo 1.80 EURNZD digital call with a 3m 1.80 window KO. Paid 17.5% on November 21. Marked at 19.04%.
Long a 6m 9.60 EUR put/SEK call. Paid 57.2bp November 21. Revalued at 52bp.
We advocate deploying shorts in futures contracts of near-month tenors with a view to arresting further potential bearish risks of USDCAD, alternatively, we advocate buying USDCAD 3m risk reversal strikes 1.3440/1.2450 (at spot ref: 1.2068).
