FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.09876

 Kijun-Sen- 1.09771

EURUSD pared some of its gains made after mixed US Non-Farm payroll. It hits a high of 1.10419 and is currently trading around 1.09927.

 The US economy has added  187000 jobs in Jul, below the forecast of 205k. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4% from 3.6% the previous month. Average hourly earnings m/m increased to 0.40% vs an estimate of 0.30%.

Major economic data for the week

Aug 7th, 2023,  FOMC member Harker speech  (12:15 pm GMT)

Aug 10th, 2023, US CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Aug 11th, 2023,  US PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 86.50% from 80% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield pared some gains after the weak US NFP. The  US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -75 from -110%.

The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any indicative break below 1.0950 confirms further bearishness: a decline to 1.0900/ 1.0850/1.0800  is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.100. The breach above targets 1.1050/1.1100.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – Neutral

  Directional movement index – neutral

It is good to sell on rallies around 1.100 with SL around 1.1050 for a TP of 1.0800.