FxWirePro: Currency Weekly Outlook

US Dollar index continues to trade weak for 3rd consecutive week. the index shows a minor recovery of till 98 and started to decline. US Non-Farm payroll rose 128000 in Oct compared to the estimate of 89000, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% and average hourly earnings came at 0.3% vs forecast of 0.0%. US Fed was little hawkish and cuts rates by 25 bps. The central bank mentioned it will pause for a while and follow the wait and watch approach.

Bank Canada has kept its borrowing costs unchanged at 1.75% and hints the chance of a rate cut on account downside risk due to trade war.

The previous week was filled with full of major economic data especially the US with CB Consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing came slightly weak than expected.

The yellow metals are consolidating after a jump till $1516 and markets eyes Brexit and US-China trade talks for further direction. Any break below $1458 confirms bearish continuation.

US 10-year yield is trading weak and lost more than 10% from high 1.86%. The spread between US 10-year and 2-year has widened to 15.6 bps.

Weekly Technical:

EURUSD:

Major trend reversal level- 1.1285

Near term support- 1.1130/1.060

Near term resistance – 1.1178/1.1245

USDJPY:

Major trend reversal level- 109.30

Near term support- 107.80/106.40

Near term resistance – 109.30/110.60

USDCHF

Major trend reversal level- 1.0030

Near term support- 0.9840/0.97700

Near term resistance – 1.0030/10060

USDCAD

Major trend reversal level- 1.3020

Near term support- 1.310/1.3020

Near term resistance – 1.3180/1.3235

Gold

Major trend reversal level- $1460

Near term support- $1480/$1460

Near term resistance – $1525/$1555

WTI Crude

Major trend reversal level- $57.05

Near term support- $50/$46

Near term resistance – $55.55/$57.05

Major Economic events for the week
 

US ISM Non-manufacturing index - Tuesday (3:00 GMT)

EU economic forecast - Thursday  (10:00 am GMT)

Canadian Employment Change - Thursday (1:30 GMT)