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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4 hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1995.41
Kijun-Sen- $2007.96
Gold is trading lower for a second consecutive week on a strong US dollar and rising US treasury yield. It hit a low of $1975 and is currently trading at around $1985.75.
Analyst predicts a minor downtick in headline inflation on a yearly basis. While core CPI is expected to remain flat.
Major economic data for the day
Dec 12th, 2023,
US CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102/100. The near-term resistance is 104.40/105.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Dec decreased to 98.4% from 99% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield pared some of its gains ahead of US CPI. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -49% from -34%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1970, a break below targets of $1950/$1932.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2000 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2020/$2050.
It is good to sell on rallies around $2000 with SL around $2020 for TP of $1945.
Silver-
Silver showed a minor pullback due to profit booking after a massive sell-off. The precious metal is trading well below 200-day EMA ($23.20). Any daily close above $23.25 confirms a minor uptrend, a jump to $24/$25 is possible. Minor support is $22.60/$22/$21.80.
Crude oil-
WTI crude gained yesterday extending its Friday's rally on US SPR refill news. The US federal government wants to buy 3 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Major resistance- $75/80. Significant support- $68/$63.
