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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2036.94
Kijun-Sen- $2029.12
Gold trades higher on the weak US dollar. Markets eye US Nonfarm payroll data for further direction. Any upbeat US jobs data will be positive for the US dollar. The yellow metal hit a low of $2030 yesterday and is currently trading around $2041.53.
US ISM manufacturing rose to 49.10 in Jan, above the forecast of 47.20. The price paid index jumped to 52.90 from 45.20. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits jumped to a two-month high of 224000 last week, below the estimate of 212000.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 63% from 50.90% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bearish if it closes above 102.70. Minor support around 103/102.75. The near-term resistance is 103.75/104.50.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2043, a break below targets of $2030/$2015/$2000/$1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2060 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2070/$2080/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2025 with SL around $2010 for TP of $2065/$2080.
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Silver-
Silver has been trading directionless and struggling to close above $23.60 for the past month. It trades above 21 and 55- EMA and long-term MA (200- EMA) in the 4-hour chart. The near-term resistance is around $23.60 and a close above confirms a bullish continuation. A jump to $24/$24.60 is possible. It is immediate support at around $22.50. Any break below target $21.90/$21.50.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices dropped more than $5 after hitting a multi-month high. The easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East dragging the oil prices down.
Major resistance- $80/$83.50. Significant support- $77/$74.
Feb 2nd 2024, US NFP (1:30 pm GMT)
