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After reaching a peak of 9.994 against the Norwegian Krone in December, the euro has steadily declined against the Scandinavian counterpart. The Norwegian Krone is currently trading at 9.504 per euro and it is up this week as Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) gave an explicit hint of a rate hike going ahead.
Here is the full statement from Norges Bank translated into English,
“On 2 March, the government adopted a new monetary policy regulation. The inflation target is now 2 percent, compared with previously 2.5 percent. The new regulation will not lead to significant changes in the pursuit of monetary policy. Inflation management is flexible with an emphasis on developments in production and employment. A lower target number in itself has little significance for interest rate prospects in the near future.
The economic recovery continues both at home and abroad. Growth appears to be somewhat stronger than previously expected, and capacity utilization in the Norwegian economy is approaching a normal level. Underlying inflation is low, but higher capacity utilization will probably contribute to the growth in prices and wages gradually increasing.
Monetary policy is expansive. The outlook for the Norwegian economy indicates that it will soon be correct to raise the key rate. Uncertainty about the effects of a higher interest rate speaks to be cautious. Overall, the changes in the outlook and risk scenario indicate a somewhat earlier rate of increase than in the previous report.”
"As we look at the outlook and the risk picture, the key rate will most likely be set up after the summer of this year," said Øystein Olsen, Governor of the Central Bank.
Our calculations suggest that the Krone is likely to strengthen further against the single currency.
Trade idea:
Sell EUR/NOK at the current rate of 9.5 with the stop loss around 10 area and with a target of 8.86 area.
