FxWirePro- BTCUSD Daily Outlook

BTCUSD  was one of the best performers this month. It surged more than $7000 from the previous month's close. It hit a high of $44729 and is currently trading around $42952.

Reasons for price jump-

Fed monetary policy- Dovish rate pause

The policymaker kept its rates unchanged as expected and trimmed the forecast of GDP growth and inflation. Fed dot plot shows that there will 3 rate cuts in 2024 (0.75%). According to the Glassnode report, between Jan 1st and Dec 17th, 2023, BTC long-term holders added 825000 BTC to their holdings.

The positive developments in Blackrock BTC ETF  after the 24th time discussion with SEC also support the price at lower levels.

Major Economic data for the week

Dec20th 2023,                     

                                US CB consumer confidence  (3 pm GMT)

Dec 21st 2023, US Final GDP q/q (1:30 pm GMT)

Dec 22nd, 2023, Core PCE index  (1:30 pm GMT)

            Core durable goods order

              US new home sales (3 pm GMT)

Factors to watch for Bitcoin price action-

  US markets -

 NASDAQ (negative correlation with BTC) - Bullish (neutral for BTC). The 60-day correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ 100 turned negative, according to data from Kaiko. Any close above 16800 will take the index to 17000/17500.

 According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in  Jan increased to 10.3% from 4.0% a week ago.

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 Technicals-

Major support- $40000.  Any break below will take it to the next level at $38600/$34825 if possible.

 Bull case-

Primary supply zone -$45000. The breach above confirms minor bullishness. A jump to the next level of $48000/$50000 is possible.      

  Secondary barrier- $50000. A close above that barrier targets $52000/$56600.

 It is good to buy on dips around $40000 with SL around $37800 for TP of $50000.