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FxWirePro: BRICS currencies on verge of short gains - hedging perspectives (INR, CNY & ZAR)

INR: The rupee appreciated for a 5th day to a seven-week high against the US dollar, as equities joined a global rally after upbeat US jobs numbers eased fears of a widespread economic slowdown. Some FIIs inflows also helped the domestic currency in gaining against the benchmark.

In the currency futures market, the most traded dollar-rupee March contract on the NSE ended at 67.59.

The near month contract's open interest was up 4.18% from the previous day, while next month's contract open interest was up 28.63% from the previous day, we expect the US dollar to meet supply pressure on rallies against the rupee. Capitalize on pullbacks in the USD/INR March contract to short.

CNY: As you can observe USDCNY has been losing its buying momentum from last 2 month while RSI evidencing downward convergence, but in this for this week CNY seems to be edgy ahead of data announcements, Chinese Forex reserves and Balance of trade are scheduled on 8th March, and Chinese PPI, inflation rates (MoM) and FDI YTD lined up on 10th, Retail sales, Industrial production and Fixed asset investments on 11th, set the tone of CNY's next direction. To stay hedged for short term risks we like to stay short in 1M forwards, however long term investors should be worried for upside risks.

ZAR: Although, technically USDZAR has shown weakness, we look ahead for fundamental stabilities as the frequently changing finance ministers likely worried investors overexposed to the local bond market. We therefore reached USD/ZAR levels we have forecasted for the end of Q2' 2016 at around 15.50 range.

We believe the dust may settle now but would maintain a bearish bias because headline inflation may increase in the near future on seasonality and the current account deficit remains a concern. we advocate to buy the diagonal spreads ahead of downside pressures and dubious eyes on continuation of long term uptrend. Hence, go long in 3M OTM delta call while shorting 2W ATM call with positive thetas for time decay advantage on shorter tenors on short side.

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