Four things the Greek referendum will not change

Greek voting stations close at 18h00 CET with the first exit poll expected shortly after. If the knife-edge vote indicated by the most recent opinion polls hold true, it will be the early hours of Monday before the actual result is known. 

Societe Generale notes:

We spent much of last week analysing what, respectively, a yes and no vote would entail. As we await the referendum outcome, we consider what it will not change. 

First, in Greece - Yes or No - it will take time to gain clarity on the situation. Second, much political damage has already been done in the euro area; and more could be done. Third (and perhaps first in order of importance), the euro area needs urgently to accelerate structural reform; both the national and European level. 

While our baseline scenario is that contagion from Greece will remain modest thanks to better tools, there is a negative risk scenario that could influence policy decisions further afield and notably slow Fed rate hikes.

On our list of points that the referendum will not change, however, is the efforts by Chinese authorities to stem the decline in its equity markets. New measures announced by the Chinese authorities (IPO suspension and a new stabilisation fund) will be put to the test next week, whatever the Greeks vote.