Final Italian HICP consumer prices to print at 0.3% yoy

Final Italian HICP inflation is expected to confirm the flash estimate of 0.3% yoy in October. Although the energy component fell further from -7.6% in September to -7.7% in October in yoy terms (cutting 1bp from the headline), it was up 0.8% mom in October after having declined for the past three month (in mom terms). 

Food prices continued to increase for a third consecutive month, rising from 1.7% yoy to 2.1% yoy and adding 8bp to the headline. Core prices also increased from 0.8% yoy to 1.0% yoy, primarily led by non-energy industrial goods rising from 0.5% yoy to 0.9% yoy (adding 10bp) alongside the marginal increase in prices paid for services, which rose by a tick to 1.0% yoy (adding 4bp). 

"We expect Italian HICP inflation to average 0.2% in 2015 and 1.1% yoy in 2016. The core component should average 0.8% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016", says Societe Generale.