Final February euro-area HICP inflation to confirm flash estimates at -0.3% yoy

Euro-area flash HICP inflation printed in negative territory at -0.3% yoy in February while the core component remained stable 0.6% yoy. Food, alcohol and tobacco rose from -0.1% yoy to 0.5% yoy, adding 12 bp to the headline while energy decelerated from -8.9% yoy in January to -7.9% in February, adding 11 bp. 

Societe Generale notes as follows on Tuesday

• We expect the final numbers to confirm the flash estimates at -0.3% yoy for the headline, and 0.6% for the core.
  
  
• For the inflation market, the euro-area HICP index came in 9 bp higher than our estimate which would imply, all else being equal, a HICP ex-tobacco at around 115.85.
  
  
• Looking ahead, we expect consumer prices in the euro area to continue to rebound on the back of a markedly lower euro and higher energy prices. 
  
  
• HICP inflation should average 0.3% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016 while the core metric will likely remain stable at 0.9% yoy in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016.