Fed’s Anna Paulson Signals Rates Could Stay Higher Longer Amid Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said Tuesday that financial markets are right to consider the possibility of future U.S. interest rate hikes as inflation pressures continue to linger. Speaking at the 2026 Financial Markets Conference in Amelia Island, Florida, Paulson noted that while current monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive, the Federal Reserve may still need to tighten further if inflation accelerates.

Paulson warned that rising energy prices tied to ongoing Middle East tensions, along with tariffs and global supply chain disruptions, have increased upside risks for inflation. She said it is “healthy” for investors to prepare for scenarios where the federal funds rate stays elevated for an extended period or potentially moves higher if economic conditions demand it.

Despite those concerns, Paulson stated that the Fed’s current stance is “mildly restrictive” and remains in a “good place” to balance inflation control with labor market stability. Her remarks come as investors reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 following stronger-than-expected inflation data and a sharp increase in oil prices.

According to Paulson, headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rose to 3.5% in March from 2.6% in January 2025, while core inflation reached 3.2%. She also highlighted that gasoline prices have surged more than 50% since the beginning of the year, adding financial pressure on consumers and businesses.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained elevated, with WTI crude trading near $103.94 per barrel. The combination of rising energy costs and persistent inflation has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could delay rate cuts or even consider additional hikes later this year.

Paulson also said the U.S. labor market continues to show resilience despite uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence-related job displacement and geopolitical tensions. The unemployment rate has remained near historically low levels at 4.3%.

She emphasized that any future rate cuts would depend on “sustained progress” toward the Fed’s long-term 2% inflation target, signaling policymakers remain cautious about easing monetary policy too soon.