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Fed Hike aftermath Series: Hike probabilities over coming meetings

FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 1st April)

  • May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 95.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 14.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 85.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 34.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 65.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 36.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 63.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 41.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 58.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 12.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 39.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 46.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     

The probability is suggesting,

  • Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have somewhat tightened but still very dovish.
  • The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 53.5 percent probability, compared to 58 percent last week, and 54.6 percent in the week before that.  
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2019-07-02 15:32:08
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July 2 15:00 UTC Released

DKCurrency Reserves

Actual

449.6 Stale

Forecast

Previous

451.7 Stale

July 2 13:45 UTC Released

USISM NY Biz Conditions

Actual

50 %

Forecast

Previous

48.6 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 765197765197m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 765197765197m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 777017777017m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 765197765197m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 777017777017m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 765197765197m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 765197765197m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 765197765197m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

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