UK Raises Deposit Protection Limit to £120,000 to Strengthen Saver Confidence 
BOJ Governor Ueda and PM Takaichi Set for Key Meeting Amid Yen Slide and Rate-Hike Debate 
Brazil Central Bank Plans $2 Billion Dollar Auctions to Support FX Liquidity 
RBA Reassesses Pricing Behaviors and Policy Impact Amid Inflation Pressures 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Indonesia Aims to Strengthen Rupiah as Central Bank Targets 16,400–16,500 Level 
Japan’s Inflation Edges Higher in October as BOJ Faces Growing Pressure to Hike Rates 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 4th March)
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 96.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 3.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 92.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 7.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 90.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 90.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have somewhat tightened.
- The market is pricing just one rate hike for 2019 and that with just 9.7 percent probability, compared to a 4.5 percent a week ago and 1.8 percent in the week before that, which means that the market is far from pricing a rate hike in 2019, despite Fed’s forecast of two hikes.
- However, the market is no longer pricing the possibility of a rate cut compared to 12.5 percent probability last week.
