Expected Slowdown: U.S. Job Growth to Hit Five-Month Low as Wages Stay Strong

Scheduled for release today, August 1, 2025, at 8:30 a. m. ET (12:30 GMT), the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is expected to reveal a severe decrease in employment growth. Economists anticipate a July rise of 106,000 to 110,000 jobs, the lowest increase in five months and below June's 147,000 gain. Concurrently, the unemployment rate is predicted to modestly rise from 4. 1% to 4. 2%.

But average hourly wages are predicted to rise by 0. 3% month-on--month and about 3. 8% year-on-year, therefore retaining steady growth. Although June's NFP numbers were raised by employment in state and local government and healthcare, the general trend suggests a resilient but decelerating labor market. Employers' hesitant hiring strategy is mostly ascribed to uncertainties in national politics and international commerce.

Because its results may directly affect equities, the US dollar, and future Federal Reserve policy choices, the next NFP report is very significant for financial markets. The general agreement points to a cooling but steady US labor market for July 2025 marked by lower employment growth, steady wage increases, and a little rise in unemployment.