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Europe Roundup: Sterling ticks up as UK inflation hits 41-year high , European shares fall, Gold firms, Oil prices up after incident involving vessel off Oman coast-November 16th,2022

Market Roundup

•UK Oct PPI Input (YoY) 19.2%, 18.0%  forecast, 20.0% previous

•UK Oct PPI Output (YoY) 14.8%, 14.6% forecast ,15.9% previous

•UK Oct PPI Input (MoM )0.6%, 0.3% forecast ,0.4% previous

•UK Oct RPI (YoY)  14.2%,13.5% forecast ,12.6% previous

•UK Oct CPI (YoY) 11.1%,10.7% forecast ,10.1% previous

•UK Oct CPI (MoM)  2.0%,1.7% forecast , 0.5% previous

•UK Labour Productivity 0.2% forecast  0.4% previous

• Italian Oct CPI (MoM) 3.4%, 3.5% forecast , 0.3% previous

•Italian Oct CPI (YoY)  11.8% ,11.9% forecast ,8.9% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT )

•13:15  Canada Oct Housing Starts 270.0K forecast, 299.6K previous

•13:30  Canada Oct Core CPI (MoM)   0.4% previous

•13:30 Canada Oct Core CPI (YoY)  6.0% previous

•13:30 US  Oct Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4%  forecast,0.1% previous

•13:30 US Oct Retail Sales (MoM)  1.0% forecast,0.0% previous

•13:30  US Oct Export Price Index (MoM) -0.4% forecast,-0.8% previous

•13:30 US  Oct Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.2% forecast,  0.3% previous

•13:30 Canada Oct CPI (MoM)  0.7% forecast, 0.1% previous

•13:30  US  Oct Import Price Index (MoM)  -0.4% forecast,-1.2% previous

•13:30  US  Oct Retail Sales (YoY)  8.23% previous

•13:30  Canada Median CPI (YoY)4.8%   forecast,4.7% previous

•13:30  Canada Common CPI (YoY) 5.9% forecast, 6.0% previous

•13:30  US Export Price Index (YoY) 9.5% previous

•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) 6.0% previous

•14:15  US Oct Industrial Production (YoY) 5.33% previous

•14:15  US  Oct Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.4% previous

•14:15 US Oct Industrial Production (MoM)  0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous

•15:00  US Sep Retail Inventories Ex Auto  -0.1%  forecast, 0.6% previous

•15:00  US Sep Business Inventories (MoM)  0.5% forecast, 0.8% previous

•15:00 US Nov NAHB Housing Market Index  36 forecast, 38 previous

• 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.440M forecast, 3.925M previous

•21:00  US Sep Foreign Buying, T-bonds  174.20B previous

•21:00  US Sep Overall Net Capital Flow  275.60B previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 19:35  US Fed Waller Speaks

•14:15   UK  BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

•15:00   EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Fxbeat

EUR/USD: The euro rose against dollar on Wednesday as signs of cooling U.S. inflation boosted bets for smaller rate hikes weakened dollar, while reports around Russian missiles killing two people in Poland kept investors cautious. The U.S. producer price index (PPI) increased 8.0% for the 12 months through October compared with economist expectations for 8.3% and September’s 8.4% increase, according to the Labor Department data. The data, following last week’s smaller-than-expected increase in consumer prices for October, encouraged investors who have been closely monitoring inflation data for signs that the Federal Reserve could slow its interest rate hikes. The euro was last 0.47% higher at $1.0412. It was heading back towards the four-and-a-half month high of $1.0481 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0434(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0311 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards  1.0261(5DMA).

GBP/USD: Sterling rose against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday following UK inflation data that topped expectations and raised the chances of yet more interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE). Surging household food and energy bills pushed British inflation for October to 11.1%.In response to the data, finance minister Jeremy Hunt, who is set to unveil a series of tax hikes and spending cuts on Thursday, said “tough but necessary” decisions were required to tackle rising prices.Hunt’s plan is the first budget since former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s September “mini-budget” prompted UK bonds to plunge and borrowing costs to soar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1952 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2036 (Nov 16th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1806(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1661(38.2%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as the greenback  fell after Biden defuses tensions over Poland blast. U.S. President Joe Biden told G7 and NATO partners that a missile blast in Poland was caused by a Ukrainian defence missile, dispelling fears that it originated from Russia. The dollar, which acts a safe haven in times of geopolitical or market turmoil, rallied as much as 0.7% overnight, before tracking lower in European trading and was last down 0.3% against a basket of major currencies . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9458(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9497(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9391 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9348 (lower BB).

USD/JPY: The dollar initially gained against the yen on Wednesday but gave up some ground as traders reassess risks from Poland. NATO-member Poland and Ukraine said on Tuesday the blast that killed two on the Polish side of their border was likely caused by a Russian-made rocket, raising concerns of an escalation in the war.However, Biden said the weapon was probably not fired by Russia, although the investigation was ongoing. Biden said the United States and its NATO allies were investigating the blast but early information suggested it may not have been caused by a missile fired from Russia.  Strong resistance can be seen at 139.64(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.68(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 137.72(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 136.98(Lower BB).

Equities Recap

European shares fell on Wednesday, with Mercedes Benz Group leading losses in automobiles stocks, while a blast in Poland kept sentiment subdued and pushed up defence stocks.

At (GMT 12:34),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.09 percent, Germany's Dax was down  by 1.03 percent, France’s CAC   was down 0.53   .

Commodities Recap

Gold rose on Wednesday as the dollar eased, while reports of a tanker being hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman also boosted the safe-haven metal’s appeal.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,783.59 per ounce by 1008 GMT, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.6% to $1,786.90

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses, after an incident involving a commercial vessel off the coast of Oman, but rising COVID-19 cases in China capped gains.

Brent crude futures gained 65 cents, or 0.7%, to $94.51 a barrel by 0854 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $87.27 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than $1 earlier in the session.

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