Market Roundup
• Sweden Jul Unemployment Rate 7.7%, 9.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:30 US Building Permits 1.396M foecast,1.454M previous
• 12:30 US Jul Building Permits (MoM) 3.9% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% forecast,-1.3% previous
• 12:30 Canada Corporate Profits (QoQ) 0.6% previous
• 12:30 Canada Jul Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -2.1% previous
• 12:30 Canada Jun Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3% forecast, -0.8% previous
• 14:00 US Jul New Home Sales (MoM) -0.6% previous
• 14:00 US Jul New Home Sales 624K forecast, 617K forecast,
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 14:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose slightly against the dollar as investors remained cautious ahead of a highly anticipated speech by the Federal Reserve Chair. Market participants are looking for confirmation that U.S. rate cuts will begin in September. While Fed policymakers are generally supportive of cutting rates next month due to easing inflation and a cooling labor market, one official has suggested a more cautious approach to policy changes. Traders have largely factored in a rate cut for next month, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 76% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. The euro was last up 0.1% at $1.1123, remaining close to the 13-month high it reached on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1143(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1200(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1098(Aug 21st low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1050 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound remained close to a 13-month high against the dollar as traders awaited crucial speeches from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's address at the Jackson Hole research conference is anticipated for insights into potential rate cuts by the U.S. central bank this year. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak at the symposium at 1900 GMT. The pound gained 0.2% to $1.3116, extending earlier gains that have pushed it to its highest level since July 2023. It is poised for a weekly increase of about 1.5%.Sterling has been among the top performing major currencies this year, picking up momentum in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3148(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3188(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3062(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Friday as traders geared up for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Central bankers will be key in setting the tone for financial markets over the coming days as a gathering of the world's most influential monetary policymakers gets under way in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell is due to speak at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole research conference at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) and traders will tune in to gauge by how much U.S. borrowing costs could go lower in the near term. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8578 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8633 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8503 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8444 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen after Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated his hawkish stance. Ueda confirmed that the BOJ plans to keep its current policy approach and hinted at the possibility of further monetary tightening if the bank’s growth and inflation targets are met. In his parliamentary address, where he was called to explain the BOJ's July rate hike, Ueda also cautioned that market volatility could impact the central bank’s inflation forecasts. Given Japan's strong economic performance and ongoing inflation, many analysts expect the BOJ may implement another rate increase before the end of the year.Strong resistance can be seen at 146.45(50 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.36(Aug 20th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.13(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 144.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were largely unchanged on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's highly anticipated speech later in the day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.54 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.32 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices gained on Friday but were still set to finish the week on a down note. The uptick was overshadowed by weaker U.S. employment data, which sparked concerns about the economic health of the world's largest oil consumer.
At 0932 GMT, Brent crude futures increased by 67 cents, or 0.9%, reaching $77.89 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures edged up by 69 cents, or 1%, to $73.70.
Gold prices climbed on Friday as investors positioned themselves ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech, which could offer clues about a potential U.S. interest rate cut in September. However, gold was still on track to end the week with a loss.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,497.19 per ounce by 1014 GMT, but was off a record high of $2,531.60 hit on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures gained 0.6% to $2,532.80.
