Market Roundup
•Swiss Jul CPI (MoM) -0.2%, -0.2%forecast, 0.0% previous
•Swiss Jul CPI (YoY) 1.3%, 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•French Jun Government Budget Balance -103.5B, -113.5B previous
•French Jun Industrial Production (MoM) 0.8%, 1.0% forecast, -2.1% previous
•Italian Jun Retail Sales (YoY) -1.0%, 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jul U6 Unemployment Rate 7.4% previous
•12:30 US Jul Participation Rate 62.6% previous
•12:30 US Jul Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3%forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Jul Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 3.7% forecast, 3.9% previous
•12:30 US Jul Nonfarm Payrolls 176K forecast, 206K previous
•12:30 US Jul Private Nonfarm Payrolls 148K forecast, 136K previous
•12:30 US Jul Manufacturing Payrolls -1K forecast, -8K previous
•12:30 US Jul Average Weekly Hours 34.3 forecast ,34.3 previous
•12:30 US Jul Government Payrolls 70.0K previous
•12:30 US Jul Unemployment Rate 4.1% forecast, 4.1% previous
•14:00 US Jun Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.5% previous
•14:00 US Jun Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -7.0% previous
•14:00 US Jun Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun) -2.7% forecast -0.5% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 482 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 589 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
EUR/USD: The euro rose on Friday as the dollar weakened in response to disappointing U.S. manufacturing data. The dollar's decline followed a softer-than-expected U.S. factory activity survey on Thursday and came ahead of Friday's monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Economists predict that job growth will have slowed to 175,000 in July, down from 206,000 in June. Money markets on Friday priced in a 31% chance that the Federal Reserve, expected to cut rates in September and November, might implement a substantial 50-basis-point cut next month to guard against a potential downturn. The euro rose 0.16% to $1.08085, after reaching a three-week low of $1.07775 overnight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0842(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0870(July 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0807(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0779(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied on Friday following sharp losses the previous day, when the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates for the first time in over four years. The BoE reduced rates by a quarter-point to 5% on Thursday in a closely contested vote among policymakers, highlighting ongoing inflation risks. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that the central bank was not committing to a series of rapid rate cuts, noting that recent improvements in economic performance could keep inflation concerns in focus. Sterling was nearly flat at $1.2739, after having hit a fresh one-month low at $1.2708 earlier in the session, and was on track to post its biggest weekly decline in nearly four months, down 1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2792(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2888(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2682(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2612(July 2nd low).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Friday following an unexpected slump in U.S. manufacturing, which heightened concerns about a potential economic downturn. Investors will keep a close eye on the U.S. payrolls report, scheduled for 12:30 GMT, for additional guidance on monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mentioned on Wednesday that interest rates could be cut as early as September if the U.S. economy follows the expected trajectory. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, trader bets on a 50-basis-point rate cut in September surged to 31.5%, up from 11.8% earlier in the week. The Swiss franc gained about 0.1% to 0.8718 per dollar, and earlier reached its highest since early February at 0.8707. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8736(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8778(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8696 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8600(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped against the yen on Friday as investors grew concerned that U.S. payrolls data might be weak, following an unexpected decline in U.S. manufacturing that raised fears of a slowdown in the world's largest economy and boosted traditional safe-haven currencies. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Thursday that U.S. manufacturing activity fell to an eight-month low in July, with new orders decreasing. The yen strengthened, pushing the dollar down 0.3% to 148.90. It continued to gain after the Bank of Japan's decision to raise rates, reaching as high as 148.51 overnight, a level not seen since mid-March. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.85( Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.52 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.47(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 148.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped more than 1% on Friday, influenced by a global risk-off mood triggered by disappointing U.S. growth data, which overshadowed a few positive corporate updates.
At (GMT 12:46 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.51 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.76 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed on Friday, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market participants were also awaiting U.S. payrolls data.
Spot gold was up 0.7% at $2,463.48 per ounce, as of 0643 GMT, just $20 shy of the record peak of $2,483.60 scaled in July. Prices have climbed more than 3% this week.U.S. gold futures climbed 1.1% to $2,507.80.
Oil prices held steady on Friday but were still on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Weak growth in global fuel demand overshadowed concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures were up 18 cents, or 0.2%, at $79.70 a barrel by 1040 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.47.
