Market Roundup
•German Apr Exports (MoM) 1.6%,1.1% forecast,0.9% previous
•German Apr Imports (MoM) 2.0%,0.6% forecast,0.3% previous
•German Apr Industrial Production (YoY) -3.86%,-3.35% previous
•German Apr Trade Balance 22.1B,22.6B forecast,22.3B previous
•French May Reserve Assets Total 245,904.0M,247,118.0M previous
•French Apr Trade Balance -7.6B,-5.4B forecast,-5.5B previous
•French Apr Exports 51.2B,52.2B previous
•French Apr Imports 58.8B,57.7B previous
•French Apr Current Account -1.80B,1.30B previous
•Swiss May Foreign Reserves 717.6B,720.4B previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•EU Employment Employment Change (YoY) (Q1)1.0%,1.0% forecast,1.2% previous
•EU GDP (YoY)0.4%,0.4% forecast,0.1% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q1)168,082.0K,168,055.8K forecast,167,534.6K previous
Looking A head Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada May Part Time Employment Change 50.3K previous
•12:30 US May Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 Canada May Full Employment Change 40.1K previous
•12:30 US May Private Nonfarm Payrolls 170K forecast,167K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls 182K forecast,175K previous
•12:30 US May Manufacturing Payrolls 5K forecast,8K previous
•12:30 Canada May Unemployment Rate 6.2% forecast,6.1% previous
•12:30 US May Average Weekly Hours 34.3 forecast,34.3 previous
•12:30 US May Unemployment Rate 3.9% forecast,3.9% previous
•12:30 US May Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 3.9% forecast,3.9% previous
•12:30 Canada May Employment Change 24.8K forecast,90.4K previous
•12:30 US May Participation Rate 62.7% previous
•12:30 US May U6 Unemployment Rate 7.4% previous
•14:00 US Apr Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.4% previous
•14:00 US Apr Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) -1.3% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 496 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 600 previous
•17:00 U.S Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 2.6% forecast,2.6% forecast,
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:15 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut rates in a well-telegraphed move, but offered few hints about the outlook for monetary policy. The ECB delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut on Thursday, its first since 2019, joining its counterparts in Canada, Sweden and Switzerland in easing the monetary policy.The central bank, however, provided little clues about the future interest rate path, causing traders to scale back bets of additional rate cuts.Finnish ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said in a blog post that inflation will continue to decline and interest rate cuts will support economic recovery, while Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB was not on autopilot mode and still acting restrictively despite the cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0919(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0940(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0870(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0848(50% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was headed for a fourth consecutive weekly gain against the dollar on Friday, its longest rally since March last year, as investors prepared for data on the health of the U.S. labour market that could shape the outlook for U.S. rates.Sterling was unchanged at $1.2789 at 0915 GMT.On a weekly basis, sterling is set for a rise of 0.4% and is around its highest since March, having topped $1.28 earlier in the week. But much of that rally has been the result of dollar weakness, rather than pound strength. Next week brings data on UK economic growth and employment, which could offer investors a steer on what to expect from the BoE in the coming weeks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2817 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2856(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2734(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2668(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Friday as traders waited on crucial U.S. monthly jobs data for clues about whether the Federal Reserve would soon follow euro zone and Canadaian interest rate cuts.Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report could support or derail a dominant market narrative that the jobs market is softening enough for inflation to fall consistently.
Economists expect the world's largest economy added 185,000 new jobs last a month, a relatively modest gain that traders will likely celebrate after data on Wednesday showed U.S. job openings fell to their lowest in more than three years in April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8952 (61.8% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9021(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8897 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8824 (23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against yen on Friday ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting next week. Despite recent firmness though, the yen remains not far from the 34-year trough beyond 160 per dollar reached at the end of April, which prompted Japanese officials to spend some 9.8 trillion yen ($62.9 billion) intervening in the currency market to support it.Both the government and BOJ are concerned that rising import costs will scupper a hoped-for cycle of moderate inflation and steady wage hikes.Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated a readiness to take action against excessive currency swings, but added that restraint was also required. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.02(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.87(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.93(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 153.35 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Friday, a day after the European Central Bank eased borrowing costs as was widely expected, with the focus now shifting to the U.S. jobs data to gauge the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.53 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.79 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.80 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil ticked higher on Friday, finding support from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia indicating readiness to pause or reverse oil output increases, but crude was still headed for its third straight weekly loss on demand concerns.
Brent crude futures edged up 26 cents, or 0.3%, to $80.13 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.2% to $75.67 as of 1030 GMT.
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Friday after data showed China's central bank held off gold purchases in May following 18 consecutive months of buying.
Spot gold fell 1.8% to $2,333.69 per ounce as of 1123 GMT. Bullion reversed nearly all its weekly gains after the data and is now up only 0.3% so far this week.
