Market Roundup
• German Retail Sales (MoM) (May-1.4%,0.4%previous
• German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -1.1%,-1.4% previous
• German Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) -2.1%,-1.8% previous
• German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 1.5%,-1.1% previous
• German Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) -0.8%,-2.1%previous
• German Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 2.1%,-0.8%previous
• German Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.6% ,1.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 231K forecast, 225K previous
• 12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,830K forecast, 1,826K previous
• 12:30 US CPI (YoY): 2.3% forecast, 2.5% previous
• 12:30 US CPI (MoM): 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 US Core CPI (YoY): 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
• 12:30 US Core CPI (MoM): 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 12:30 US Real Earnings (MoM): 0.5% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage: 73B forecast, 55B previous
•15:00 US Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% previous
•15:30 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.755% previous
•15:30 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.655% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
14:30 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•15:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday as investors assessed European Central Bank officials' views on the interest rate outlook. ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau and Greek central bank director Yannis Stournaras have signaled support for another rate decrease next week. In contrast, ECB policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf stated that wage growth poses upside inflation concerns, while policymaker Peter Kazimir questioned the necessity of a rate cut in October. Economists polled expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December. The euro was flat at $1.0939 following its dip to $1.0936 in the previous session.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1005(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1053(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0944(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0920 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound was flat on Thursday, hovering near its lowest level against the dollar in a month, as traders maintained a cautious stance and waited for potentially market-moving U.S. inflation data due later in the day.The U.S. economy and the dollar have been driving global markets over the last week or so, after a much stronger-than-expected September employment report caused investors to scrub out their bets on another outsized interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.Currency markets were subdued ahead of U.S. consumer price index data for September, due at 1230 GMT, which is likely to show that inflation eased to 2.3% from 2.5% in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3127(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3188(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3064(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level).
NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is consolidated around 0.6074 on Thursday following a sharp drop on Wednesday after the RBNZ's dovish rate cut. The RBNZ lowered the official cash rate from 5.25% to 4.75%, marking its second consecutive cut since August, in response to slowing inflation and economic activity. Swaps now suggest a 13% chance that the RBNZ could cut by 75 basis points in November. As of GMT 04:16, the kiwi dollar recovered by 0.36% to 0.6106, bouncing back from an overnight low of $0.6050.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6142 (Oct 9th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6078 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6040(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the yen on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. September's consumer price index (CPI), due at 1230 GMT, is likely to show core inflation holding steady at a 3.2% year-on-year clip. Traders lay 80% odds on the Fed cutting rates by a quarter point at its next policy decision on Nov. 7, versus 20% probability of no change, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A day earlier, the probability of a cut stood at 85%.The dollar index was little changed at 102.86 as of 0024 GMT, sticking close to Wednesday's high of 102.93.Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.49(23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.61(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares failed on Thursday to follow overnight gains in the U.S. and China, while the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was at its highest in over two months ahead of important inflation data.
At (GMT 12:22),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.04 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices recovered slightly on Thursday to snap a six-session losing streak, while traders remain focused on a key U.S. inflation reading for insights on a potential rate reduction by the Federal Reserve this year.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,615.19 per ounce, as of 0833 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 0.2% higher to $2,632.30.
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, underpinned by a spike in fuel demand as a major storm barrelled into Florida, with Middle East supply risks also in focus.
Brent crude futures rose $1.01, or 1.3%, to $77.59 a barrel by 1108 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up $1, or 1.4%, at $74.24.
